On December 30, 2008, the Case–Shiller home price index reported its largest price drop in its history. The credit crisis resulting from the bursting of the housing bubble is—according to general consensus—an important cause of the 2007–2009 recession in the United States – Wikipedia
Now we are rapidly approaching the ten-year anniversary of this event, riding on growth that some deem uncontrollable, unrealistic, out of hands, and the scary word – a bubble. But why are we here today? Why were we there last?
Let’s look at this. Suddenly we hear all this rumbling about recession, short sales and a crashing market. Today I have even seen a reporter draw the line between bitcoin and subprime loans making the conclusion that we are indeed in a bubble and the end is near. Maybe there will be a day when I will deeply regret writing this, but as of today I see two things:
#1
A guy in Tukwila bought a home using cryptocurrency. Let me put this into perspective for you. One guy, not ten, or a hundred or hundreds of thousands of guys, but one guy. If in December of 2008 we would have dealt with one subprime loan that had been issued in a careless way to a person that was already at the cusp of not being able to pay of their current debt. We most likely would have never seen the subprime loan crisis. But in all reality, there were more than 12 million subprime mortgages with a value of nearly $2 trillion. However, what happened 10 years ago was way more complex than just throwing money at people. Did all subprime loans default then? Well, no. The highest number of defaulted mortgages were in the category of traditional prime loans.
#2
Today the Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped past 25000 for the first time hitting 1,000 points higher than just a month ago. Why is this remarkable then? Well, it took 14 years for it to climb from 10,000 to 15,000. Should we be concerned then? Is it going too fast? Or is it just that Dow Jones hit 25,000. If the growth indeed is artificial, I admit we have a problem. However unemployment is at its 17 year low and we do have a strong economy at the moment.
Some would say that I’m lost, but I don’t see the problem.
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